Integrating the Western Balkans into the European Union: Perceptions, Misperceptions and Current Challenges

Background

Despite almost two decades since the launch of the EU Stabilization and Association Process that has provided continuous support to the Western Balkans (financial and technical assistance, liberalized access to EU markets, contractual relations through the signing of Stabilization and Association Agreements) and even the promise of EU membership at the EU-Western Balkan Summit in Thessaloniki in 2003, only one country – Croatia – has become an EU member state (in July 2013), while only two other countries – Montenegro and Serbia – are currently negotiating EU accession. The global economic crisis and the subsequent eurozone crisis have deeply affected the EU, with strong spill-over effects on the Western Balkans (Bartlett and Uvalic, eds, 2013). 

Slow economic recovery in many EU member states, Brexit, the migration crisis (Bonomi, 2016), and growing EU scepticism have also diminished EU’s attractiveness, leading to declining support of the EU in some Western Balkan countries. Renewed interest in EU-Western Balkan integration has recently been stimulated by the Berlin Process, that since 2014 has promoted stronger connectivity and a regional economic area in the Western Balkans, with the conviction that regional integration can positively influence faster economic development and major political stability. 

Moreover, a clear sign of EU’s recommitment in the Western Balkan region was given by European Commission’s new enlargement strategy (February 2018) and the Sofia EU-Western Balkan Summit (May 2018) (see European Commission, 2018; Mirel 2018). Nevertheless, there are many uncertainties regarding future EU enlargement(s) linked to both different views within the EU Council, the European Parliament elections, position of the new EU Commission and future EU neighbourhood policies, and internal developments in the individual Western Balkan countries (Teokarevic, 2019; Bonomi, 2018a). 

Since 2000, the political elites have been verbally supportive of the EU accession process, but the Western Balkan populations are internally heterogeneous and deeply divided. The political discourse on EU integration has been changing continuously, influenced by continued political instability in most Western Balkan countries deriving from changes in governments, political scandals, unresolved bilateral issues (particularly the Kosovo issue), tendency towards more authoritarian regimes (BiEPAG, 2017; Keil, 2018). 

For a variety of reasons, EU policies are sometimes perceived very differently by leading Western Balkan politicians, opposition parties’ leaders, administrative staff in EU integration offices, intellectuals, ordinary citizens. The different political orientation of political parties, legacies of the 1990s (military conflicts, international sanctions, NATO bombing), low-quality and highly corrupted media, lack of transparency about EU negotiations, false promises and ambiguity in foreign policy stances of politicians, heavy external involvement in the making of states (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo), higher education reforms without proper quality assurance systems (Bartlett et. al, 2016), are only some of the factors that have influenced a polarized and distorted image of the EU in the eyes of the Western Balkans populations. 

The slow pace of EU-Western Balkan political integration has been accompanied by increasing economic integration of the region with the EU economy (through trade, Foreign Direct Investment, financial and banking integration), so the EU is today by far the largest economic partner of the Western Balkans (Bonomi and Uvalic, 2019a; Uvalic, 2019). However, pressing economic problems – low level of development, strong deindustrialization, foreign investors’ interest in prevalently the non-tradables sector, slow economic recovery after the 2009 crisis, increasing income inequality, high unemployment and continuous brain drain (see Damiani and Uvalic; 2018; Estrin and Uvalic, 2016) – have determined increasing popular dissatisfaction in most Western Balkan countries, leading to divergence in the perceptions of the EU of the political elites, formally in favour of EU membership, and those of its citizens. 

Over the past ten years, there has been declining support of the population in most Western Balkan countries for the EU integration process, largely confirmed by recent public opinion polls. Two groups of reasons explain such trends: the hesitation of the EU to offer a viable and convincing perspective of accession in the meaningful future; and the gap between elite enthusiasm and popular scepticism regarding EU accession (Jovic, 2018). At the same time, there are also misperceptions of the Western Balkans on the part of EU officials and key politicians of some EU member states, who have sometimes given precedence to political stability in the Western Balkan region over support of more democratic governments. Such misperceptions on both sides risk to jeopardise EU – Western Balkan integration, slowing down the process of accession of these countries to the EU. 

The objective of the research is to investigate, in a comparative perspective, what are the perceptions (and misperceptions) of the European Union and its policies in the individual Western Balkan countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia (the “Western Balkan 6”). Croatia will also be considered, despite having joined the EU in 2013. Croatia shares a common history with this region, so its’ recent experience could be particularly useful for understanding populations’ attitudes towards the EU in the other Western Balkan countries. 

The specific objectives of the research are the following:

1. to examine the perceptions of the EU and EU policies in the Western Balkan countries of politicians, major political parties and population at large;
2. to determine the degree of support for the EU integration process by the key political parties, NGOs and citizens;
3. to analyse the perceptions of the role of EU policies for the promotion of democracy and rule of law;
4. to investigate the perceptions of Western Balkan politicians and citizens regarding EU’s role in promoting economic development and improved economic governance.

Providing fresh empirical evidence on these issues is important for the current phase of EU-Western Balkan relations, given the recent EU recommitment in the Western Balkans following the publication of the EU Commission’s new EU enlargement strategy in February 2018.